In-Depth Investment Value Analysis Report on Dongpeng Beverage (605499)

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Dongpeng Beverage Group was founded in 1997 and is a leading enterprise in China’s functional beverage industry. Its core product “Dongpeng Special Drink” has become a household name. As of January 20, 2026, the company’s market capitalization reached

, firmly ranking among the top in China’s beverage industry [0].

Product Series	Positioning	2025 Revenue Share	Development Stage
Dongpeng Special Drink	Energy Drink	Approx. 65%	Mature Stage
Dongpeng Bu Shui La	Electrolyte Water	16.91%	Rapid Growth Stage
Dongpeng Da Ka	Ready-to-Drink Coffee	Approx. 5%	Nurturing Stage
Shang Cha Series	Sugar-Free Tea	Approx. 3%	Nurturing Stage

The company has successfully transformed from a single functional beverage brand to a healthy beverage group covering full scenarios of “refreshment, hydration, thirst quenching, and leisure” [1][2].

Indicator	2025 Data	YoY Change	Evaluation
Operating Revenue	RMB 20.76-21.12 billion	+31.07%~+33.34%	Exceeded RMB 20 billion for the first time
Net Profit Attributable to Parent Companies	RMB 4.34-4.59 billion	+30.46%~+37.97%	Better-than-expected growth
Net Profit Margin	Approx. 21.8%	Remained stable	Excellent profitability
Continuous Growth	Maintained double-digit growth for 6 consecutive years	—	Growth sustainability verified

Notably, in the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of RMB 16.844 billion and net profit of RMB 3.761 billion, with year-on-year growth of 34.13% and 38.91% respectively [3], and its full-year performance exceeded market expectations.

The company has established a sales network covering

across the country, reaching nearly 100% of prefecture-level cities. Through the “Five Codes in One” digital system, it has realized full-link data connectivity from production to consumption, effectively solving the industry’s persistent problems of “information gaps and serious channel conflict” in traditional FMCG channels [1][2].

Operational Indicator	Dongpeng Beverage	Industry Average	Margin of Advantage
ROE	51.71%	12.5%	+39.21pp
Net Profit Margin	21.77%	15.0%	+6.77pp
Gross Profit Margin	46.5%	40.0%	+6.5pp
Asset Turnover Ratio	1.85x	1.2x	+54%

The company’s ROE is as high as 51.71%, far leading the beverage industry, reflecting excellent capital efficiency and profitability [0].

The success of “Dongpeng Bu Shui La” has verified the company’s cross-category operation capability. The product’s revenue share rose to 16.91% in the first three quarters of 2025, successfully seizing a position in the sports health track and becoming the company’s second growth curve [1][2]. New products can share existing terminal channels and freezer resources, forming significant channel reuse and synergy advantages.

Revenue growth in regions with low initial penetration such as North China and Southwest China is significantly higher than that in mature markets, leaving broad space for national layout. At the same time, the company is actively expanding into the Southeast Asian market, and its products have entered countries and regions such as Vietnam and Malaysia [2].

Scenario	Intrinsic Value	Upside vs Current Price	Assumptions
Conservative Scenario	CNY 584.21	+127.0%	Zero growth, 22.3% EBITDA margin
Base Scenario	CNY 917.09	+256.3%	33.7% historical growth rate, 23.5% EBITDA margin
Optimistic Scenario	CNY 2,247.43	+773.2%	36.7% growth rate, 24.6% EBITDA margin
Weighted Valuation	CNY 1,249.58	+385.5%	Probability-weighted average

Indicator	Current Value	Historical Range	Evaluation
P/E (TTM)	30.56x	25-50x	Moderately high
P/B	15.21x	10-20x	Within reasonable range
P/S	6.65x	5-10x	Reasonable growth premium

The DCF model shows that the company’s intrinsic value is significantly higher than the current stock price, but it should be noted that:

. If growth slows down, the valuation center may move downward [0].

Indicator	Value	Signal Interpretation
Current Price	257.38 CNY	—
MA20	270.90 CNY	Below short-term moving average
MA50	267.09 CNY	Below medium-term moving average
MA200	286.90 CNY	Below long-term moving average
RSI(14)	41.74	Neutral to weak, oversold opportunity possible
MACD	-1.31	Death cross, weak momentum
KDJ (K/D/J)	1.51/14.33/-24.12	Death cross, oversold zone

• The stock price is currently below all moving averages, under short-term pressure
• RSI is at 41.74, close to the oversold zone, a technical rebound may occur
• MACD is below the zero axis and shows a death cross, short-term momentum is weak
• Trading volume maintains an average of 2.24 million shares per day, with active trading
• Support level: CNY 253.45; Resistance level: CNY 270.90 [0]

The current P/E ratio of 30.56x is at a historical medium-to-high level; if growth falls short of expectations, it may face valuation correction pressure.

Competition in the functional beverage market is becoming increasingly fierce, with brands such as Red Bull and Anfei continuing to expand, and the electrolyte water track has also attracted giants such as Nongfu Spring and C’estbon to deploy [2].

Fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as sugar, PET bottles, and taurine may affect gross profit margin.

Changes in the preferences of young consumers may lead to slowdown in the growth of traditional functional beverages.

Dimension	Score (1-10)	Weight	Weighted Score
Growth	9.0	25%	2.25
Profitability	9.5	20%	1.90
Valuation Rationality	6.5	20%	1.30
Competitive Advantage	8.5	20%	1.70
Industry Outlook	8.0	15%	1.20
Comprehensive Score	—	100%	8.35

1. Solid Channel Barrier
   : The 4.3 million terminal network and digital system have built a strong moat
2. Mature Multi-Category Matrix
   : Dongpeng Special Drink + Bu Shui La + Da Ka + Shang Cha form a product echelon
3. Still Room for National Layout
   : Regions such as North China and Southwest China have great growth potential
4. Strong Brand Momentum
   : 6 consecutive years of double-digit growth verify execution capability

1. High Base Effect
   : 2025 revenue has exceeded RMB 20 billion, making it more difficult to maintain a growth rate of over 30%
2. Narrowing Valuation Premium
   : The current price has partially priced in growth expectations
3. Intensified Industry Competition
   : Giants are entering the functional beverage and electrolyte water tracks

Investor Type	Recommendation	Reason
Long-term Investor	Accumulate positions on dips	High growth certainty, hold patiently
Short-term Trader	Range trading	Buy low and sell high in the range of CNY 253-270
Value Investor	Wait for a pullback	Wait for valuation to return to a reasonable range

: Short-term CNY 280-300 (+10%~+17%), Medium-term CNY 350-400 (+36%~+55%) [0]

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[0] Jinling API Market Data - Real-time Quotation, Financial Analysis, Technical Analysis of Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SS) (2026-01-20)

[1] Ifeng Finance - “Oriental Roc, Leaping Across the Globe: Strategic Conviction and Global Ambition Behind Dongpeng Beverage’s Sustained High Growth” (2026-01-15) https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8pvoGUSFyli

[2] Sina Finance - “Dongpeng Beverage’s 2025 Annual Performance Exceeds Expectations, Nationalization and Multi-Category Strategy Drive Revenue to Surpass RMB 20 Billion” (2026-01-14) https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/cn/2026-01-14/doc-inhhhnwt4046902.shtml

[3] Xinhua News - “Enterprise Sample | How a ‘Small Beverage’ Unleashes Great Energy - The Transformation Story of Dongpeng Beverage” (2025-12-29) http://www.news.cn/fortune/20251229/73a73e64f2e2491e809e209102dac876/c.html