Weekly Market Overview: Nov 24-28, 2025 – Volatility, Rate Cut Hopes, and Sector Shifts

The market enters the week of Nov24 with mixed signals—last week’s sharp sell-off (Nov20) followed by a partial recovery (Nov21) as rate cut expectations rose. Investor sentiment remains divided: some warn of further downside (30-50% drop) citing AI bubble risks and Wyckoff Distribution patterns, while others see policy catalysts (Fed rate cuts, new Bitcoin legislation) driving all-time highs by year-end [0][1][2][4][5]. Key themes include conflicting views on AI sector sustainability and policy-driven market shifts.

Major indices saw volatility: Nov20 drops (S&P500 -2.96%, NASDAQ -4.25%, Dow -1.75%) then Nov21 recovery (S&P +0.72%, NASDAQ +0.50%, Dow +0.95%). Small caps (Russell2000) bounced hardest (+2.72% on Nov21) indicating broadened participation [0].

Healthcare (+1.73%) and Industrials (+1.52%) led Nov21 gains; Tech was nearly flat (+0.14%), Utilities down (-0.88%) [0].

Russell2000’s strong recovery suggests broadening market participation after the Nov20 sell-off [0].

1. Fed Rate Cut Odds Rise
   : NY Fed President Williams (a Powell ally) commented on room for further rate cuts, pushing Dec cut odds to above70% (up from ~40% prior) [2]. Goldman Sachs had earlier forecast a Dec cut [7].
2. Nvidia’s Q3 Results & Criticism
   : Nvidia reported record Q3 revenue ($57B, +62% YoY) but faced criticism from Michael Burry over stock-based compensation accounting [1]. Nvidia’s stock rose 5% post-earnings but was down ~8% in Nov before that [1].
3. Tesla’s Bitcoin Stance
   : Tesla held its 11,500 BTC (~$1.3B) in Q3—no sells, so recent Bitcoin crash isn’t linked to Tesla [3].
4. New Bitcoin Legislation
   : Rep Davidson introduced the Bitcoin For America Act (Nov20) allowing tax payments in BTC without capital gains, directing funds to the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—updating the earlier stuck bill [4].
5. Wyckoff Distribution Concerns
   : Reddit users cited this bearish reversal pattern (institutional selling masked as consolidation) as a risk [5].

• Nvidia (NVDA)
  : Post-Q3 gains (5% extended) offset by Nov’s ~8% drop and Burry’s accounting criticism [1].
• Russell2000
  : +2.72% on Nov21—sharpest recovery among indices, indicating small-cap momentum [0].
• Tesla (TSLA)
  : Held Bitcoin in Q3; Q3 earnings beat expectations [3].

• Dec Fed meeting (rate cut odds now above70%) [2].
• Nvidia’s response to accounting criticism [1].
• Progress on the Bitcoin For America Act [4].

• AI Bubble Risks
  : Nvidia’s accounting debate fuels ongoing concerns about AI sector sustainability [1].
• Small-Cap Momentum
  : Russell2000’s bounce may signal a shift from large-cap tech to broader market participation [0].
• Healthcare Leadership
  : Sector’s strong performance (1.73% on Nov21) warrants further monitoring [0].

• Geopolitical tensions (Japan’s missile deployment near Taiwan) [6].
• Wyckoff Distribution pattern signals (bearish reversal risk) [5].
• Tech sector stagnation (nearly flat on Nov21) [0].